When Canada completed its first century as a country, the world beat a path to Montreal to help us celebrate. Expo 67 was an exciting event in an exciting city. Montreal was leading the way in urban development and it was the most powerful cog in Canada's economic engine.

Not any more.

Montreal was one of the first Canadian cities to industrialize. It depended heavily on old-style production in such sectors as textiles. Thus, it was among the first to suffer from the competition of low-wage countries. It has not recovered from the blows suffered by the loss of its manufacturing base. Montreal has one of the highest unemployment rates of any city on the continent. Very few cities have declined from primary to secondary status as Montreal did in the seventies, according to Mario Polese of l'Institute de la Recherche Scientifique in Montreal.

Between 1972 and 1991, the population on the Island of Montreal fell by 260,000. During the same period, surrounding suburbs swelled by half a million. Lysiane Gagnon, a political columnist for La Presse writes that "Families with children, a house, and a steady income are at the core of any city; they are the ones who care about the school system and how a city is run. But, Montreal is gradually becoming a place of extremes: well-off dink (dual income, no kids) condo-owners co-existing with a larger group of increasingly poorer tenants." Those who are better off are escaping to the suburbs, where taxes are lower and services better.

Businesses are leaving too, finding it more cost-efficient and profitable to settle off-Island. The loss of CP Rail was a major blow when it moved its headquarters to Calgary. Even the chairman of the Bank of Montreal, has suggested it may be time to move his head office out of town and change his company's name.

This flight of industry is reflected in declining ridership on public transit. At the same time, the 400,000 people who commute into the city core daily from the suburbs are straining Montreal's bridges and expressways. Montreal, with a collapsing income, is saddled with the repair bills.

As the tax base gets smaller, those that are left behind are forced to pay more. Montreal business taxes are now the third highest on the continent; much higher than in neighbouring Dorval or Saint-Hubert. This only works to speed up the exodus.

Add to this concerns about stability in light of the provincial government's wish to separate from Canada. So, it's not surprising that the population of Montreal is predicted to fall by another third by 2031.

Montreal is rapidly becoming a doughnut city--empty at the centre. Everybody with a stake in it is hoping and praying it doesn't decline any further and become like many U.S. cities. Detroit is the horror story all want to avoid.

In the 1950s, Detroit was prosperous with two million citizens, most of whom had well-paying jobs in one of the many car factories. In just one generation, Detroit's population has dropped by a half leaving behind thousands of abandoned buildings.

The streets of what was one of the world's richest and fastest-growing cities have been taken over by hoodlums. The most flourishing commerce in many areas is the buying and selling of crack cocaine. What used to be known as "Motor City" became known as "Murder City," with the annual body count topping 700. (Montreal in 1991 scored Canada's highest murder total at 104).

The final indignity came in the fall of 1995. Camilo Jose Vergara, a New York author, wrote several national magazine articles in which he suggested a novel use for Detroit. He said the boarded-up skyscrapers in Detroit's empty core should be turned into a ruins theme park. "I propose," wrote Mr. Vergara, "that...a dozen city blocks of pre-Depression skyscrapers be stabilized and left standing as ruins...We could transform the nearly 100 troubled buildings into a grand national historic park of play and wonder."

Detroit is not unique. Smaller cities such as Gary, Indiana, and Flint, Michigan have gone into decline just as bigger ones such as New York, and Washington, DC, have.

None of this is news to Cornell University Professor William Goldsmith. He studies urban affairs and says: "The United States today is a geography of privilege and despair well-off people live in the suburbs; poor people live in the central cities

which

are becoming more hostile, and there is a general collapse of social services."

Professor Goldsmith spoke at a conference in Toronto in 1994. He believes Canadians don't need to panic yet about the decline of their cities. "We come to Toronto, quite literally, for relief. We know it is a safe city, it is a civilized city...It works.

"We produced our problems...Canada has a long ways to go to get equally messed up." Professor Goldsmith's confidence doesn't stop urban planners from worrying about trends they see developing. In the first half of the 1990s, the Toronto region had a net loss of 100,000 jobs.

During the overheated years of the 1980s, municipal politicians saw the business growth of Toronto's downtown core as a bottomless well and tried to use it to keep residential taxes low --residents vote, businesses don't. The boom ended, and Toronto is now left with vacant office buildings and the highest business taxes in North America. Suburban sprawl-cities such as Mississauga and Markham are taking advantage of this state of affairs. Between 1985 and 1995, the number of firms in Metropolitan Toronto declined by 28% while the number in four neighbouring regions (whose taxes are often less than half of those of Toronto) increased by 43%.